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1193 lines
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HTML
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445 KiB
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<link rel="preload" as="style" href="/allStyles?hash=f108aab7246a4357e4eb17d0ac74af25e898c7055529eaba173b1bd7818e0868&theme=%7B%22name%22%3A%22default%22%7D"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/icon?family=Material+Icons"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/instantsearch.css@7.0.0/themes/reset-min.css"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Roboto:300,400,500"><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://use.typekit.net/jvr1gjm.css"><script type="text/javascript" async="" src="https://www.gstatic.com/recaptcha/releases/CDFvp7CXAHw7k3HxO47Gm1O9/recaptcha__en.js" crossorigin="anonymous" integrity="sha384-4eVJVnSQi48XouWWBCleJxcjDMTY1Z4KmOhd0bvetv4tPVMhPa8rAthYuqSjf197"></script><script async="" src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id=GTM-TRC765W"></script><script>window.publicInstanceSettings = {"forumType":"LessWrong","title":"LessWrong","siteNameWithArticle":"LessWrong","sentry":{"url":"https://1ab1949fc8d04608b43132f37bb2a1b0@sentry.io/1301611","environment":"production","release":"69f0f3c5d57b596e8249571383f8a280eff9bb23"},"debug":false,"aboutPostId":"bJ2haLkcGeLtTWaD5","faqPostId":"2rWKkWuPrgTMpLRbp","contactPostId":"ehcYkvyz7dh9L7Wt8","expectedDatabaseId":"production","tagline":"A community blog devoted to refining the art of rationality","faviconUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1497915096/favicon_lncumn.ico","forumSettings":{"headerTitle":"LESSWRONG","shortForumTitle":"LW","tabTitle":"LessWrong"},"analytics":{"environment":"lesswrong.com"},"testServer":false,"fmCrosspost":{"siteName":"the EA Forum","baseUrl":"https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/"}}</script><script defer="" src="/js/bundle.js?hash=8db4b949ab0a3e29596daef364671796f8e37651c5b6efd9192e0f0d23fb7307"></script><title>Predictable updating about AI risk - LessWrong</title><meta data-react-helmet="true" http-equiv="Accept-CH" content="DPR, Viewport-Width, Width"><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:title" content="Predictable updating about AI risk - LessWrong"><meta data-react-helmet="true" charset="utf-8"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="description" content="> "This present moment used to be the unimaginable future."
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> - Stewart Brand …"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:image:src" content="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/kkygldeur6b96qqyidee"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:description" content="> "This present moment used to be the unimaginable future."
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> - Stewart Brand …"><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:type" content="article"><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:url" content="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk"><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:image" content="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/kkygldeur6b96qqyidee"><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:description" content="> "This present moment used to be the unimaginable future."
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> - Stewart Brand …"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="citation_title" content="Predictable updating about AI risk"><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="citation_author" content="Joe Carlsmith"><link data-react-helmet="true" rel="canonical" href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk"><link data-react-helmet="true" rel="shortcut icon" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/v1497915096/favicon_lncumn.ico"><link data-react-helmet="true" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="https://www.lesswrong.com/feed.xml">
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|
@media (min-width:960px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginBottomCenter {
|
|||
|
|
left: 50%;
|
|||
|
|
right: auto;
|
|||
|
|
transform: translateX(-50%);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginTopRight {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: flex-end;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:960px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginTopRight {
|
|||
|
|
top: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
left: auto;
|
|||
|
|
right: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginBottomRight {
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: flex-end;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:960px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginBottomRight {
|
|||
|
|
left: auto;
|
|||
|
|
right: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginTopLeft {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: flex-start;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:960px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginTopLeft {
|
|||
|
|
top: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
left: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
right: auto;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginBottomLeft {
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: flex-start;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:960px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiSnackbar-anchorOriginBottomLeft {
|
|||
|
|
left: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
right: auto;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiButton">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-root {
|
|||
|
|
color: rgba(0,0,0,0.87);
|
|||
|
|
padding: 8px 16px;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 0.875rem;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 64px;
|
|||
|
|
box-sizing: border-box;
|
|||
|
|
min-height: 36px;
|
|||
|
|
transition: background-color 250ms cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1) 0ms,box-shadow 250ms cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1) 0ms,border 250ms cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1) 0ms;
|
|||
|
|
font-weight: 500;
|
|||
|
|
font-family: GreekFallback,Calibri,"Gill Sans","Gill Sans MT",Myriad Pro,Myriad,"Liberation Sans","Nimbus Sans L",Tahoma,Geneva,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
|
|||
|
|
line-height: 1.4em;
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 4px;
|
|||
|
|
text-transform: uppercase;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-root:hover {
|
|||
|
|
text-decoration: none;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-root.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.26);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-root:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: transparent;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-root:hover.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: transparent;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-label {
|
|||
|
|
width: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
display: inherit;
|
|||
|
|
align-items: inherit;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: inherit;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textPrimary {
|
|||
|
|
color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textPrimary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(95, 155, 101, 0.08);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textPrimary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: transparent;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textSecondary {
|
|||
|
|
color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textSecondary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(95, 155, 101, 0.08);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-textSecondary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: transparent;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlined {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.23);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedPrimary {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid rgba(95, 155, 101, 0.5);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedPrimary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedPrimary.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.26);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedSecondary {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid rgba(95, 155, 101, 0.5);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedSecondary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-outlinedSecondary.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.26);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained {
|
|||
|
|
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87);
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 1px 5px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.2),0px 2px 2px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.14),0px 3px 1px -2px rgba(0,0,0,0.12);
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #e0e0e0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained.MuiButton-focusVisible {
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 3px 5px -1px rgba(0,0,0,0.2),0px 6px 10px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.14),0px 1px 18px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained:active {
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 5px 5px -3px rgba(0,0,0,0.2),0px 8px 10px 1px rgba(0,0,0,0.14),0px 3px 14px 2px rgba(0,0,0,0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.26);
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: none;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #d5d5d5;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #e0e0e0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-contained:hover.MuiButton-disabled {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedPrimary {
|
|||
|
|
color: #fff;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedPrimary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #426c46;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedPrimary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedSecondary {
|
|||
|
|
color: #fff;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedSecondary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #426c46;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (hover: none) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-containedSecondary:hover {
|
|||
|
|
background-color: #5f9b65;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-fab {
|
|||
|
|
width: 56px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 56px;
|
|||
|
|
padding: 0;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 0;
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 3px 5px -1px rgba(0,0,0,0.2),0px 6px 10px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.14),0px 1px 18px 0px rgba(0,0,0,0.12);
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 50%;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-fab:active {
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 7px 8px -4px rgba(0,0,0,0.2),0px 12px 17px 2px rgba(0,0,0,0.14),0px 5px 22px 4px rgba(0,0,0,0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-extendedFab {
|
|||
|
|
width: auto;
|
|||
|
|
height: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
padding: 0 16px;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-colorInherit {
|
|||
|
|
color: inherit;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-mini {
|
|||
|
|
width: 40px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 40px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-sizeSmall {
|
|||
|
|
padding: 7px 8px;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 64px;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 0.8125rem;
|
|||
|
|
min-height: 32px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-sizeLarge {
|
|||
|
|
padding: 8px 24px;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 112px;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 0.9375rem;
|
|||
|
|
min-height: 40px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiButton-fullWidth {
|
|||
|
|
width: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiModal">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiModal-root {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 1300;
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiModal-hidden {
|
|||
|
|
visibility: hidden;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiPopover">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiPopover-paper {
|
|||
|
|
outline: none;
|
|||
|
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
|
min-width: 16px;
|
|||
|
|
max-width: calc(100% - 32px);
|
|||
|
|
overflow-y: auto;
|
|||
|
|
overflow-x: hidden;
|
|||
|
|
min-height: 16px;
|
|||
|
|
max-height: calc(100% - 32px);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiMenu">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiMenu-paper {
|
|||
|
|
max-height: calc(100% - 96px);
|
|||
|
|
-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiDrawer">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-docked {
|
|||
|
|
flex: 0 0 auto;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paper {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
flex: 1 0 auto;
|
|||
|
|
height: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
display: flex;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 1200;
|
|||
|
|
outline: none;
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
overflow-y: auto;
|
|||
|
|
flex-direction: column;
|
|||
|
|
-webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorLeft {
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
right: auto;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorRight {
|
|||
|
|
left: auto;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorTop {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: auto;
|
|||
|
|
height: auto;
|
|||
|
|
max-height: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorBottom {
|
|||
|
|
top: auto;
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
height: auto;
|
|||
|
|
max-height: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorDockedLeft {
|
|||
|
|
border-right: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorDockedTop {
|
|||
|
|
border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorDockedRight {
|
|||
|
|
border-left: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiDrawer-paperAnchorDockedBottom {
|
|||
|
|
border-top: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.12);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="">
|
|||
|
|
.jss85 {
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 1199;
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.jss86 {
|
|||
|
|
right: auto;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.jss87 {
|
|||
|
|
left: auto;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.jss88 {
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: auto;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.jss89 {
|
|||
|
|
top: auto;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style data-jss="" data-meta="MuiTooltip">
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-popper {
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 1500;
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 0.9;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltip {
|
|||
|
|
color: #fff;
|
|||
|
|
padding: .7rem;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 10000000;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 1rem;
|
|||
|
|
max-width: 300px;
|
|||
|
|
font-family: GreekFallback,Calibri,"Gill Sans","Gill Sans MT",Myriad Pro,Myriad,"Liberation Sans","Nimbus Sans L",Tahoma,Geneva,"Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
|
|||
|
|
line-height: 1.4em;
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 4px;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: rgba(75,75,75,.94);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-touch {
|
|||
|
|
padding: 8px 16px;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 0.875rem;
|
|||
|
|
line-height: 1.14286em;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementLeft {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 0 24px ;
|
|||
|
|
transform-origin: right center;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:600px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementLeft {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 0 14px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementRight {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 0 24px;
|
|||
|
|
transform-origin: left center;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:600px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementRight {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 0 14px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementTop {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 24px 0;
|
|||
|
|
transform-origin: center bottom;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:600px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementTop {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 14px 0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementBottom {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 24px 0;
|
|||
|
|
transform-origin: center top;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
@media (min-width:600px) {
|
|||
|
|
.MuiTooltip-tooltipPlacementBottom {
|
|||
|
|
margin: 14px 0;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><link id="main-styles" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" onerror="window.missingMainStylesheet=true" href="/allStyles?hash=f108aab7246a4357e4eb17d0ac74af25e898c7055529eaba173b1bd7818e0868&theme=%7B%22name%22%3A%22default%22%7D"><script async="" src="https://widget.intercom.io/widget/wtb8z7sj"></script><style>.ck.ck-editor__editable span[data-ck-unsafe-element]{display:none}.ck-hidden{display:none!important}.ck.ck-reset,.ck.ck-reset_all,.ck.ck-reset_all *{box-sizing:border-box;width:auto;height:auto;position:static}:root{--ck-z-default:1;--ck-z-modal:calc(var(--ck-z-default) + 999)}.ck-transitions-disabled,.ck-transitions-disabled *{transition:none!important}:root{--ck-color-base-foreground:#fafafa;--ck-color-base-background:#fff;--ck-color-base-border:#c4c4c4;--ck-color-base-action:#61b045;--ck-color-base-focus:#6cb5f9;--ck-color-base-text:#333;--ck-color-base-active:#198cf0;--ck-color-base-active-focus:#0e7fe1;--ck-color-base-error:#db3700;--ck-color-focus-border-coordinates:208,79%,51%;--ck-color-focus-border:hsl(var(--ck-color-focus-border-coordinates));--ck-color-focus-outer-shadow:#bcdefb;--ck-color-focus-disabled-shadow:rgba(119,186,248,0.3);--ck-color-focus-error-shadow:rgba(255,64,31,0.3);--ck-color-text:var(--ck-color-base-text);--ck-color-shadow-drop:rgba(0,0,0,0.15);--ck-color-shadow-drop-active:rgba(0,0,0,0.2);--ck-color-shadow-inner:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);--ck-color-button-default-background:transparent;--ck-color-button-default-hover-background:#e6e6e6;--ck-color-button-default-active-background:#d9d9d9;--ck-color-button-default-active-shadow:#bfbfbf;--ck-color-button-default-disabled-background:transparent;--ck-color-button-on-background:#dedede;--ck-color-button-on-hover-background:#c4c4c4;--ck-color-button-on-active-background:#bababa;--ck-color-button-on-active-shadow:#a1a1a1;--ck-color-button-on-disabled-background:#dedede;--ck-color-button-action-background:var(--ck-color-base-action);--ck-color-button-action-hover-background:#579e3d;--ck-color-button-action-active-background:#53973b;--ck-color-button-action-active-shadow:#498433;--ck-color-button-action-disabled-background:#7ec365;--ck-color-button-action-text:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-button-save:#008a00;--ck-color-button-cancel:#db3700;--ck-color-switch-button-off-background:#b0b0b0;--ck-color-switch-button-off-hover-background:#a3a3a3;--ck-color-switch-button-on-background:var(--ck-color-button-action-background);--ck-color-switch-button-on-hover-background:#579e3d;--ck-color-switch-button-inner-background:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-switch-button-inner-shadow:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);--ck-color-dropdown-panel-background:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-dropdown-panel-border:var(--ck-color-base-border);--ck-color-input-background:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-input-border:#c7c7c7;--ck-color-input-error-border:var(--ck-color-base-error);--ck-color-input-text:var(--ck-color-base-text);--ck-color-input-disabled-background:#f2f2f2;--ck-color-input-disabled-border:#c7c7c7;--ck-color-input-disabled-text:#757575;--ck-color-list-background:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-list-button-hover-background:var(--ck-color-button-default-hover-background);--ck-color-list-button-on-background:var(--ck-color-base-active);--ck-color-list-button-on-background-focus:var(--ck-color-base-active-focus);--ck-color-list-button-on-text:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-panel-background:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-panel-border:var(--ck-color-base-border);--ck-color-toolbar-background:var(--ck-color-base-foreground);--ck-color-toolbar-border:var(--ck-color-base-border);--ck-color-tooltip-background:var(--ck-color-base-text);--ck-color-tooltip-text:var(--ck-color-base-background);--ck-color-engine-placeholder-text:#707070;--ck-color-upload-bar-background:#6cb5f9;--ck-color-link-default:#0000f0;--ck-color-link-selected-background:rgba(31,177,255,0.1);--ck-color-link-fake-selection:rgba(31,177,255,0.3);--ck-disabled-opacity:.5;--ck-focus-outer-shadow-geometry:0 0 0 3px;--ck-focus-outer-shadow:va
|
|||
|
|
AD-TRIPLE-BOX,
|
|||
|
|
ADS-RIGHT,
|
|||
|
|
DFP-AD,
|
|||
|
|
[class^="adDisplay-module"],
|
|||
|
|
[class^="amp-ad-"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-ad-cls],
|
|||
|
|
[data-adbridg-ad-class],
|
|||
|
|
[data-css-class="dfp-inarticle"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-d-ad-id],
|
|||
|
|
[data-desktop-ad-id],
|
|||
|
|
[data-dynamic-ads],
|
|||
|
|
[data-ez-name],
|
|||
|
|
[data-freestar-ad],
|
|||
|
|
[data-id^="div-gpt-ad"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-m-ad-id],
|
|||
|
|
[data-mobile-ad-id],
|
|||
|
|
[data-name="adaptiveConstructorAd"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-rc-widget],
|
|||
|
|
[data-role="tile-ads-module"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-template-type="nativead"],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="ad-wrap-"],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="ad_sky"],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="ad_slider"],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="section-ad-banner"],
|
|||
|
|
[onclick^="location.href='http://www.reimageplus.com"],
|
|||
|
|
a-ad,
|
|||
|
|
ad-shield-ads,
|
|||
|
|
amp-ad-custom,
|
|||
|
|
amp-connatix-player,
|
|||
|
|
app-ad,
|
|||
|
|
app-advertisement,
|
|||
|
|
app-large-ad,
|
|||
|
|
ark-top-ad,
|
|||
|
|
article.ad,
|
|||
|
|
aside[id^="adrotate_widgets-"],
|
|||
|
|
atf-ad-slot,
|
|||
|
|
bottomadblock,
|
|||
|
|
display-ads,
|
|||
|
|
div[class^="Adstyled__AdWrapper-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[class^="Display_displayAd"],
|
|||
|
|
div[class^="kiwi-ad-wrapper"],
|
|||
|
|
div[class^="native-ad-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-ad-placeholder],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-ad-wrapper],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-adname],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-adunit-path],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-adunit],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-adzone],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-alias="300x250 Ad 1"],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-alias="300x250 Ad 2"],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-content="Advertisement"],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-contentexchange-widget],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-dfp-id],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-id-advertdfpconf],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-insertion],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-mini-ad-unit],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-native-ad],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-spotim-slot],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="_vdo_ads_player_ai_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ad-div-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ad-position-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ad_position_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="adngin-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="adrotate_widgets-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ads250_250-widget-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ads300_100-widget-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ads300_250-widget-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="adspot-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="advads_ad_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="crt-"][style],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="div-ads-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="google_dfp_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="gpt_ad_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="lazyad-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="optidigital-adslot"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="rc-widget-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="sticky_ad_"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="vuukle-ad-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[recirculation-ad-container],
|
|||
|
|
gpt-ad,
|
|||
|
|
guj-ad,
|
|||
|
|
hl-adsense,
|
|||
|
|
img[src^="https://images.purevpnaffiliates.com"],
|
|||
|
|
span[id^="ezoic-pub-ad-placeholder-"],
|
|||
|
|
topadblock,
|
|||
|
|
zeus-ad,
|
|||
|
|
[class^="tile-picker__CitrusBannerContainer-sc-"],
|
|||
|
|
citrus-ad-wrapper,
|
|||
|
|
[class^="s2nPlayer"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id*="MarketGid"],
|
|||
|
|
[onclick*="content.ad/"],
|
|||
|
|
AMP-AD,
|
|||
|
|
amp-fx-flying-carpet,
|
|||
|
|
a[data-obtrack^="http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"],
|
|||
|
|
a[data-oburl^="https://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"],
|
|||
|
|
a[data-redirect^="https://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"],
|
|||
|
|
a[data-url^="http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"] + .author,
|
|||
|
|
a[data-widget-outbrain-redirect^="http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"],
|
|||
|
|
a[onmousedown^="this.href='http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"][target="_blank"],
|
|||
|
|
a[onmousedown^="this.href='http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"][target="_blank"] + .ob_source,
|
|||
|
|
a[onmousedown^="this.href='https://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"][target="_blank"] + .ob_source,
|
|||
|
|
a[target="_blank"][onmousedown="this.href^='http://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="taboola-stream-"],
|
|||
|
|
display-ad-component,
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="zergnet-widget"],
|
|||
|
|
a[aria-label="Werbelink"],
|
|||
|
|
[class~="mailpoet_form_popup_overlay"],
|
|||
|
|
[onclick*="window.open('http://deloplen.com/"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-uri^="https://s3.amazonaws.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-lnguri^="https://s3.amazonaws.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[onclick*="postlnk.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[class^="DisplayAd"],
|
|||
|
|
div[class*="displayAdRight"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-lnguri*="vipbox"],
|
|||
|
|
[src^="https://aff1xstavka.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="p_root_"],
|
|||
|
|
[class^="div-gpt-ad"]:not([style^="width: 1px; height: 1px; position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: -"]),
|
|||
|
|
[id^="div-gpt-ad"]:not([style^="width: 1px; height: 1px; position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: -"]),
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="div-gpt-"]:not([style^="width: 1px; height: 1px; position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: -"]),
|
|||
|
|
.samBannerUnit, .samCodeUnit,
|
|||
|
|
[src^="//dombnrs.com/"],
|
|||
|
|
[src^="https://forum.picbaron.com/Banner"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id][style^="position: fixed; inset: 0px; z-index: 2147483647; background: black"][style*="opacity: 0.01"],
|
|||
|
|
div[class$="player-promo-col"],
|
|||
|
|
div#spot-holder.spot-holder[style="display: block;"],
|
|||
|
|
[data-ad-module]:not([style$="left: -10000px !important; top: -1000px !important;"]):not(div.adsbygoogle),
|
|||
|
|
[data-ad-width]:not([style$="left: -10000px !important; top: -1000px !important;"]):not(div.adsbygoogle),
|
|||
|
|
[data-adblockkey]:not([style$="left: -10000px !important; top: -1000px !important;"]):not(html):not(div.adsbygoogle),
|
|||
|
|
[data-advadstrackid]:not([style$="left: -10000px !important; top: -1000px !important;"]):not(div.adsbygoogle),
|
|||
|
|
[data-ad-manager-id]:not([style$="left: -10000px !important; top: -1000px !important;"]):not(div.adsbygoogle),
|
|||
|
|
div[style^="z-index: 999999; background-image: url(\"data:image/gif;base64,"][style$="position: absolute;"],
|
|||
|
|
a[onclick="openAuc();"],
|
|||
|
|
div[style="position: fixed; display: block; width: 100%; height: 100%; inset: 0px; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); z-index: 300000;"] { display: none !important; }
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
[data-revive-zoneid],
|
|||
|
|
[id^="google_ads_iframe"],
|
|||
|
|
[name^="google_ads_iframe"],
|
|||
|
|
div[aria-label="Ads"],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-ad-targeting],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-google-query-id],
|
|||
|
|
div[data-native_ad],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="dfp-ad-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="ezoic-pub-ad-"],
|
|||
|
|
div[id^="yandex_ad"],
|
|||
|
|
ins.adsbygoogle,
|
|||
|
|
div[id*="ScriptRoot"],
|
|||
|
|
a[onmousedown^="this.href='https://paid.outbrain.com/network/redir?"][target="_blank"],
|
|||
|
|
.trc_related_container div[data-item-syndicated="true"],
|
|||
|
|
amp-embed[type="taboola"] { display: none !important; }</style><style>a[href^="https://m.do.co/c/"] > img,
|
|||
|
|
[href^="https://ghoto-12.win/"],
|
|||
|
|
[href*="uselnk.com/"],
|
|||
|
|
a[href^="https://see.kmisln.com/"],
|
|||
|
|
a[href^="https://bc.game/"],
|
|||
|
|
[href="https://jdrucker.com/gold"] > img,
|
|||
|
|
a[href*=".trust.zone"],
|
|||
|
|
[href*="postlnk.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[href*="passtechusa.com"],
|
|||
|
|
[href*="speenphorbin.com"] { display: none !important; }</style><script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mathjax@3.1.2/es5/tex-mml-chtml.js"></script><script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mathjax@3.1.2/es5/input/tex/extensions/colorv2.js" charset="UTF-8"></script><style type="text/css">.CtxtMenu_InfoClose { top:.2em; right:.2em;}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_InfoContent { overflow:auto; text-align:left; font-size:80%; padding:.4em .6em; border:1px inset; margin:1em 0px; max-height:20em; max-width:30em; background-color:#EEEEEE; white-space:normal;}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_Info.CtxtMenu_MousePost {outline:none;}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_Info { position:fixed; left:50%; width:auto; text-align:center; border:3px outset; padding:1em 2em; background-color:#DDDDDD; color:black; cursor:default; font-family:message-box; font-size:120%; font-style:normal; text-indent:0; text-transform:none; line-height:normal; letter-spacing:normal; word-spacing:normal; word-wrap:normal; white-space:nowrap; float:none; z-index:201; border-radius: 15px; /* Opera 10.5 and IE9 */ -webkit-border-radius:15px; /* Safari and Chrome */ -moz-border-radius:15px; /* Firefox */ -khtml-border-radius:15px; /* Konqueror */ box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Opera 10.5 and IE9 */ -webkit-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Safari 3 & Chrome */ -moz-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Forefox 3.5 */ -khtml-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Konqueror */ filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.dropshadow(OffX=2, OffY=2, Color="gray", Positive="true"); /* IE */}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style type="text/css">.CtxtMenu_MenuClose { position:absolute; cursor:pointer; display:inline-block; border:2px solid #AAA; border-radius:18px; -webkit-border-radius: 18px; /* Safari and Chrome */ -moz-border-radius: 18px; /* Firefox */ -khtml-border-radius: 18px; /* Konqueror */ font-family: "Courier New", Courier; font-size:24px; color:#F0F0F0}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuClose span { display:block; background-color:#AAA; border:1.5px solid; border-radius:18px; -webkit-border-radius: 18px; /* Safari and Chrome */ -moz-border-radius: 18px; /* Firefox */ -khtml-border-radius: 18px; /* Konqueror */ line-height:0; padding:8px 0 6px /* may need to be browser-specific */}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuClose:hover { color:white!important; border:2px solid #CCC!important}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuClose:hover span { background-color:#CCC!important}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuClose:hover:focus { outline:none}
|
|||
|
|
</style><style type="text/css">.CtxtMenu_Menu { position:absolute; background-color:white; color:black; width:auto; padding:5px 0px; border:1px solid #CCCCCC; margin:0; cursor:default; font: menu; text-align:left; text-indent:0; text-transform:none; line-height:normal; letter-spacing:normal; word-spacing:normal; word-wrap:normal; white-space:nowrap; float:none; z-index:201; border-radius: 5px; /* Opera 10.5 and IE9 */ -webkit-border-radius: 5px; /* Safari and Chrome */ -moz-border-radius: 5px; /* Firefox */ -khtml-border-radius: 5px; /* Konqueror */ box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Opera 10.5 and IE9 */ -webkit-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Safari 3 & Chrome */ -moz-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Forefox 3.5 */ -khtml-box-shadow:0px 10px 20px #808080; /* Konqueror */}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuItem { padding: 1px 2em; background:transparent;}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuArrow { position:absolute; right:.5em; padding-top:.25em; color:#666666; font-family: null; font-size: .75em}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuActive .CtxtMenu_MenuArrow {color:white}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuArrow.CtxtMenu_RTL {left:.5em; right:auto}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuCheck { position:absolute; left:.7em; font-family: null}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuCheck.CtxtMenu_RTL { right:.7em; left:auto }
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuRadioCheck { position:absolute; left: .7em;}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuRadioCheck.CtxtMenu_RTL { right: .7em; left:auto}
|
|||
|
|
.CtxtMenu_MenuInputBox { padding-left: 1em; right:.5em; color:#666666; font-family: null;}
|
|||
|
|
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</style></head>
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<body class="abTestNoEffect_group2 collectionsPageABTest_largeSequenceItemGroup booksProgressBarABTest_progressBar welcomeBoxABTest_welcomeBox twoLineEventsSidebar_control slowerFrontpage_control Layout-whiteBackground">
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</div></div><div class="CommentsItem-bottom"><a class="comments-item-reply-link CommentsItem-replyLink">Reply</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="comments-node CommentFrame-commentsNodeRoot comments-node-root comments-node-odd CommentFrame-node" id="SrBCxKcAcK7gLTQTd"><div><div class="CommentsItem-root recent-comments-node"><div class="CommentsItem-postTitleRow"></div><div class="CommentsItem-body"><div class="CommentsItemMeta-root"><a class="CommentsItemMeta-collapse">[<span>-</span>]</a><span class="CommentsItemMeta-username CommentUserName-author"><span><span class=""><a class="UsersNameDisplay-noColor" href="/users/matthew-barnett">Matthew Barnett</a></span></span></span><span class="CommentsItemDate-root CommentsItemDate-date"><a rel="nofollow" href="/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk?commentId=SrBCxKcAcK7gLTQTd"><span class="LWTooltip-root">17d</span><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root CommentsItemDate-icon ForumIcon-root ForumIcon-linkRotation" focusable="false" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path><path d="M3.9 12c0-1.71 1.39-3.1 3.1-3.1h4V7H7c-2.76 0-5 2.24-5 5s2.24 5 5 5h4v-1.9H7c-1.71 0-3.1-1.39-3.1-3.1zM8 13h8v-2H8v2zm9-6h-4v1.9h4c1.71 0 3.1 1.39 3.1 3.1s-1.39 3.1-3.1 3.1h-4V17h4c2.76 0 5-2.24 5-5s-2.24-5-5-5z"></path></svg></a></span><span class="TwoAxisVoteOnComment-root"><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-vote"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-overallSection OverallVoteAxis-overallSectionBox"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-left VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button><span class="OverallVoteAxis-voteScore">34</span><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-right VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button></span></span></span><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="AgreementVoteAxis-agreementSection"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteAgreementIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><span class="VoteAgreementIcon-iconsContainer"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-clear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M19 6.41L17.59 5 12 10.59 6.41 5 5 6.41 10.59 12 5 17.59 6.41 19 12 13.41 17.59 19 19 17.59 13.41 12z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-smallArrowBigVoted VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-hideIcon" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-bigClear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6
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<p>The nanobots, from the bloodstream, in the parlor, Professor Plum.</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p>You could have written <em>Colonel Mustard</em>!</p>
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</div></div><div class="CommentsItem-bottom"><a class="comments-item-reply-link CommentsItem-replyLink">Reply</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="comments-node CommentFrame-commentsNodeRoot comments-node-root comments-node-odd CommentFrame-node" id="wzS25hBpMMkeigqNh"><div><div class="CommentsItem-root recent-comments-node"><div class="CommentsItem-postTitleRow"></div><div class="CommentsItem-body"><div class="CommentsItemMeta-root"><a class="CommentsItemMeta-collapse">[<span>-</span>]</a><span class="CommentsItemMeta-username CommentUserName-author"><span><span class=""><a class="UsersNameDisplay-noColor" href="/users/drake-thomas">Drake Thomas</a></span></span></span><span class="CommentsItemDate-root CommentsItemDate-date"><a rel="nofollow" href="/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk?commentId=wzS25hBpMMkeigqNh"><span class="LWTooltip-root">16d</span><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root CommentsItemDate-icon ForumIcon-root ForumIcon-linkRotation" focusable="false" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path><path d="M3.9 12c0-1.71 1.39-3.1 3.1-3.1h4V7H7c-2.76 0-5 2.24-5 5s2.24 5 5 5h4v-1.9H7c-1.71 0-3.1-1.39-3.1-3.1zM8 13h8v-2H8v2zm9-6h-4v1.9h4c1.71 0 3.1 1.39 3.1 3.1s-1.39 3.1-3.1 3.1h-4V17h4c2.76 0 5-2.24 5-5s-2.24-5-5-5z"></path></svg></a></span><span class="TwoAxisVoteOnComment-root"><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-vote"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-overallSection OverallVoteAxis-overallSectionBox"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-left VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button><span class="OverallVoteAxis-voteScore">7</span><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-right VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button></span></span></span><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="AgreementVoteAxis-agreementSection"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteAgreementIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><span class="VoteAgreementIcon-iconsContainer"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-clear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M19 6.41L17.59 5 12 10.59 6.41 5 5 6.41 10.59 12 5 17.59 6.41 19 12 13.41 17.59 19 19 17.59 13.41 12z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-smallArrowBigVoted VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-hideIcon" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-bigClear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12
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.mjx-menclose > svg {fill: none; stroke: currentColor; overflow: visible}
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.mjx-box {display: inline-block}
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.mjx-span {display: inline}
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.mjx-char {display: block; white-space: pre}
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.mjx-row {display: table-row}
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.mjx-cell {display: table-cell}
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.mjx-table {display: table; width: 100%}
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|
|
.mjx-line {display: block; height: 0}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-strut {width: 0; padding-top: 1em}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-vsize {width: 0}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-space1 {margin-left: .167em}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-space2 {margin-left: .222em}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-space3 {margin-left: .278em}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test.mjx-test-display {display: table!important}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test.mjx-test-inline {display: inline!important; margin-right: -1px}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test.mjx-test-default {display: block!important; clear: both}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-ex-box {display: inline-block!important; position: absolute; overflow: hidden; min-height: 0; max-height: none; padding: 0; border: 0; margin: 0; width: 1px; height: 60ex}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test-inline .mjx-left-box {display: inline-block; width: 0; float: left}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test-inline .mjx-right-box {display: inline-block; width: 0; float: right}
|
|||
|
|
.mjx-test-display .mjx-right-box {display: table-cell!important; width: 10000em!important; min-width: 0; max-width: none; padding: 0; border: 0; margin: 0}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-unknown-R {font-family: monospace; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-unknown-I {font-family: monospace; font-style: italic; font-weight: normal}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-unknown-B {font-family: monospace; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-unknown-BI {font-family: monospace; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-ams-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-ams-R,MJXc-TeX-ams-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-cal-B {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-B,MJXc-TeX-cal-Bx,MJXc-TeX-cal-Bw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-frak-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-R,MJXc-TeX-frak-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-frak-B {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-B,MJXc-TeX-frak-Bx,MJXc-TeX-frak-Bw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-math-BI {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BI,MJXc-TeX-math-BIx,MJXc-TeX-math-BIw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-sans-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-R,MJXc-TeX-sans-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-sans-B {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-B,MJXc-TeX-sans-Bx,MJXc-TeX-sans-Bw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-sans-I {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-I,MJXc-TeX-sans-Ix,MJXc-TeX-sans-Iw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-script-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-R,MJXc-TeX-script-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-type-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R,MJXc-TeX-type-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-cal-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R,MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-main-B {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B,MJXc-TeX-main-Bx,MJXc-TeX-main-Bw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-main-I {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I,MJXc-TeX-main-Ix,MJXc-TeX-main-Iw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-main-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R,MJXc-TeX-main-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-math-I {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I,MJXc-TeX-math-Ix,MJXc-TeX-math-Iw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-size1-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R,MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-size2-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R,MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-size3-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R,MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-size4-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R,MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-vec-R {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R,MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw}
|
|||
|
|
.MJXc-TeX-vec-B {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B,MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx,MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-ams-R; src: local('MathJax_AMS'), local('MathJax_AMS-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-ams-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_AMS-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_AMS-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_AMS-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-B; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic Bold'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Bold')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'); font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Bold.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-R; src: local('MathJax_Fraktur'), local('MathJax_Fraktur-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Fraktur-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Fraktur-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Fraktur-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-B; src: local('MathJax_Fraktur Bold'), local('MathJax_Fraktur-Bold')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Fraktur'); font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-frak-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Fraktur-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Fraktur-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Fraktur-Bold.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BI; src: local('MathJax_Math BoldItalic'), local('MathJax_Math-BoldItalic')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIx; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-weight: bold; font-style: italic}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-BIw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-BoldItalic.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-R; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-B; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Bold'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Bold')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bx; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Bold.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-I; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif Italic'), local('MathJax_SansSerif-Italic')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Ix; src: local('MathJax_SansSerif'); font-style: italic}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-sans-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_SansSerif-Italic.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-R; src: local('MathJax_Script'), local('MathJax_Script-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-script-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Script-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Script-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Script-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-R; src: local('MathJax_Typewriter'), local('MathJax_Typewriter-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-type-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Typewriter-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-R; src: local('MathJax_Caligraphic'), local('MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-cal-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Caligraphic-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-B; src: local('MathJax_Main Bold'), local('MathJax_Main-Bold')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Bold.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-I; src: local('MathJax_Main Italic'), local('MathJax_Main-Italic')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Main'); font-style: italic}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Italic.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-R; src: local('MathJax_Main'), local('MathJax_Main-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-main-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Main-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Main-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Main-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-I; src: local('MathJax_Math Italic'), local('MathJax_Math-Italic')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Ix; src: local('MathJax_Math'); font-style: italic}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-math-Iw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Math-Italic.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Math-Italic.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Math-Italic.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-R; src: local('MathJax_Size1'), local('MathJax_Size1-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size1-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size1-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size1-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size1-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-R; src: local('MathJax_Size2'), local('MathJax_Size2-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size2-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size2-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size2-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size2-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-R; src: local('MathJax_Size3'), local('MathJax_Size3-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size3-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size3-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size3-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size3-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-R; src: local('MathJax_Size4'), local('MathJax_Size4-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-size4-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Size4-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Size4-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Size4-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-R; src: local('MathJax_Vector'), local('MathJax_Vector-Regular')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Rw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Regular.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Regular.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Regular.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-B; src: local('MathJax_Vector Bold'), local('MathJax_Vector-Bold')}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bx; src: local('MathJax_Vector'); font-weight: bold}
|
|||
|
|
@font-face {font-family: MJXc-TeX-vec-Bw; src /*1*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/eot/MathJax_Vector-Bold.eot'); src /*2*/: url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/woff/MathJax_Vector-Bold.woff') format('woff'), url('https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.2/fonts/HTML-CSS/TeX/otf/MathJax_Vector-Bold.otf') format('opentype')}
|
|||
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</style></span></span></span>). </p><p>So it's fine to think that you've got a decent chance of having all kinds of credences in the future, but thinking "I'll probably feel one of two ways a few times a week for the next year" is not the kind of belief a proper Bayesian would have. (Not that I think there's an obvious change to one's beliefs you should try to hammer in by force, if that's your current state of affairs, but I think it's worth flagging that something suboptimal is going on when this happens.)</p></div></div><div class="CommentsItem-bottom"><a class="comments-item-reply-link CommentsItem-replyLink">Reply</a></div></div></div></div><div class="CommentsNode-children"><div class="CommentsNode-parentScroll"></div><div><div class="comments-node comments-node-even CommentFrame-node CommentFrame-child CommentFrame-answerLeafComment" id="NiCwkuexCZozbdxeJ"><div><div class="CommentsItem-root recent-comments-node"><div class="CommentsItem-postTitleRow"></div><div class="CommentsItem-body"><div class="CommentsItemMeta-root"><a class="CommentsItemMeta-collapse">[<span>-</span>]</a><span class="CommentsItemMeta-username CommentUserName-author"><span><span class=""><a class="UsersNameDisplay-noColor" href="/users/joe-carlsmith">Joe Carlsmith</a></span></span></span><span class="CommentsItemDate-root CommentsItemDate-date"><a rel="nofollow" href="/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk?commentId=NiCwkuexCZozbdxeJ"><span class="LWTooltip-root">14d</span><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root CommentsItemDate-icon ForumIcon-root ForumIcon-linkRotation" focusable="false" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path><path d="M3.9 12c0-1.71 1.39-3.1 3.1-3.1h4V7H7c-2.76 0-5 2.24-5 5s2.24 5 5 5h4v-1.9H7c-1.71 0-3.1-1.39-3.1-3.1zM8 13h8v-2H8v2zm9-6h-4v1.9h4c1.71 0 3.1 1.39 3.1 3.1s-1.39 3.1-3.1 3.1h-4V17h4c2.76 0 5-2.24 5-5s-2.24-5-5-5z"></path></svg></a></span><span class="TwoAxisVoteOnComment-root"><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-vote"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-overallSection OverallVoteAxis-overallSectionBox"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-left VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button><span class="OverallVoteAxis-voteScore">2</span><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-right VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button></span></span></span><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="AgreementVoteAxis-agreementSection"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteAgreementIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><span class="VoteAgreementIcon-iconsContainer"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-clear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M19 6.41L17.59 5 12 10.59 6
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<p>Which is more likely, a potato becoming US President, or a US lottery jackpot worth at least $20 million ends up with the winning number being the numerically smallest possible number?</p>
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<p>More seriously, just how improbable are "social" impossibilities, such as the potatio example, when you compare them to well-understood things like lottery tickets? I've asked a question like this before, with the social impossibility being the Pope sincerely converting to Islam. <span><span><span><a href="https://youtu.be/KUnA9jb-NpE">Weird shit does happen, though...</a></span></span></span>...</p>
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</div></div><div class="CommentsItem-bottom"><a class="comments-item-reply-link CommentsItem-replyLink">Reply</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="comments-node CommentFrame-commentsNodeRoot comments-node-root comments-node-odd CommentFrame-node CommentFrame-answerLeafComment" id="GyFgKnDX4qbjtt4sN"><div><div class="CommentsItem-root recent-comments-node"><div class="CommentsItem-postTitleRow"></div><div class="CommentsItem-body"><div class="CommentsItemMeta-root"><a class="CommentsItemMeta-collapse">[<span>-</span>]</a><span class="CommentsItemMeta-username CommentUserName-author"><span><span class=""><a class="UsersNameDisplay-noColor" href="/users/benito">Ben Pace</a></span></span></span><span class="CommentsItemDate-root CommentsItemDate-date"><a rel="nofollow" href="/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk?commentId=GyFgKnDX4qbjtt4sN"><span class="LWTooltip-root">9d</span><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root CommentsItemDate-icon ForumIcon-root ForumIcon-linkRotation" focusable="false" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path><path d="M3.9 12c0-1.71 1.39-3.1 3.1-3.1h4V7H7c-2.76 0-5 2.24-5 5s2.24 5 5 5h4v-1.9H7c-1.71 0-3.1-1.39-3.1-3.1zM8 13h8v-2H8v2zm9-6h-4v1.9h4c1.71 0 3.1 1.39 3.1 3.1s-1.39 3.1-3.1 3.1h-4V17h4c2.76 0 5-2.24 5-5s-2.24-5-5-5z"></path></svg></a></span><span class="TwoAxisVoteOnComment-root"><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-vote"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-overallSection OverallVoteAxis-overallSectionBox"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-left VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button><span class="OverallVoteAxis-voteScore">2</span><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-right VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-smallArrow" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-bigArrow VoteArrowIcon-exited" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg></span></button></span></span></span><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="AgreementVoteAxis-agreementSection"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteAgreementIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><span class="VoteAgreementIcon-iconsContainer"><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-clear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M19 6.41L17.59 5 12 10.59 6.41 5 5 6.41 10.59 12 5 17.59 6.41 19 12 13.41 17.59 19 19 17.59 13.41 12z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-smallArrowBigVoted VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-hideIcon" focusable="false" viewBox="6 6 12 12" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path d="M7.41 15.41L12 10.83l4.59 4.58L18 14l-6-6-6 6z"></path><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path></svg><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root VoteAgreementIcon-bigClear VoteAgreementIcon-noClickCatch VoteAgreementIcon-exited" focusable="false
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<p>You can expect that on average the expectation (of your future p(doom) change) is positive while the expectation is still zero; It’s likely GPT-6 will be impressive but if it’s not it’s a bigger negative update.</p>
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</div></div><div class="CommentsItem-bottom"><a class="comments-item-reply-link CommentsItem-replyLink">Reply</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="comments-node CommentFrame-commentsNodeRoot comments-node-root comments-node-odd CommentFrame-node CommentFrame-answerLeafComment" id="jFE3exdnFotmzcLtw"><div><div class="CommentsItem-root recent-comments-node"><div class="CommentsItem-postTitleRow"></div><div class="CommentsItem-body"><div class="CommentsItemMeta-root"><a class="CommentsItemMeta-collapse">[<span>-</span>]</a><span class="CommentsItemMeta-username CommentUserName-author"><span><span class=""><a class="UsersNameDisplay-noColor" href="/users/arturs-kanepajs">Artūrs Kaņepājs</a></span></span></span><span class="CommentsItemMeta-userMarkers"><span class="LWTooltip-root UserCommentMarkers-iconWrapper"><svg width="16" height="14" viewBox="0 0 16 14" fill="currentColor" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="UserCommentMarkers-sproutIcon ForumIcon-root"><path d="M15.3149 0.657185C15.2929 0.557739 15.2031 0.48933 15.1013 0.491891C15.062 0.493247 14.1257 0.529711 12.9513 0.858488C11.3849 1.29711 10.1504 2.0538 9.38118 3.04691C8.61107 4.04121 8.2035 5.43606 8.20215 7.08091C8.20125 8.31314 8.42335 9.24148 8.43284 9.28036C8.45589 9.37529 8.54088 9.44144 8.63776 9.44144C8.64138 9.44144 8.64484 9.44129 8.64846 9.44113C8.68688 9.43918 9.60045 9.38976 10.7516 9.04788C11.8215 8.72995 13.3008 8.08806 14.2716 6.83458C15.0408 5.84147 15.4646 4.45688 15.4975 2.83067C15.5222 1.61156 15.3233 0.695708 15.3148 0.657289L15.3149 0.657185Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M0.873781 1.87378C0.793923 1.87378 0.749926 1.87559 0.749926 1.87559C0.64837 1.87996 0.563991 1.95605 0.549676 2.05671C0.533705 2.16956 0.174639 4.84 1.65068 6.47104C2.94242 7.89856 5.21902 8.00946 5.88603 8.00946C5.96574 8.00946 6.00973 8.00765 6.00973 8.00765C6.1137 8.00343 6.19944 7.92403 6.21104 7.82051C6.22385 7.70765 6.50637 5.03872 5.03274 3.41042C3.74235 1.9844 1.52318 1.87366 0.873762 1.87366L0.873781 1.87378Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M13.3482 3.93867C13.3288 3.94922 11.7628 4.79423 10.3666 6.72363C9.35151 8.12689 8.263 10.3494 8.15257 13.5083C7.94042 13.4028 7.71546 13.3248 7.4834 13.2758C7.50705 12.7704 7.55557 12.275 7.62805 11.7907C7.69887 11.3194 7.79259 10.8588 7.90951 10.409C7.91675 10.3816 7.92428 10.3537 7.93151 10.3263C8.32508 8.85269 8.96771 7.49796 9.84105 6.29887C11.3316 4.25178 12.9647 3.37771 13.0336 3.34137C13.1986 3.25443 13.4023 3.31772 13.4892 3.48271C13.576 3.64785 13.5127 3.85157 13.3482 3.93849V3.93867Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M7.9705 12.1186C7.81304 12.1186 7.67216 12.0078 7.63992 11.8475C6.91123 8.22266 2.65894 4.78127 2.61574 4.74694C2.47033 4.63046 2.44683 4.41801 2.5633 4.27244C2.67977 4.12704 2.89208 4.10339 3.03764 4.21986C3.08329 4.25632 4.16969 5.13038 5.36604 6.48724C6.98597 8.32445 7.97368 10.0832 8.30155 11.7143C8.33831 11.8971 8.21988 12.075 8.03711 12.1118C8.01481 12.1163 7.99236 12.1186 7.97036 12.1186L7.9705 12.1186Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></span></span><span class="CommentsItemDate-root CommentsItemDate-date"><a rel="nofollow" href="/posts/bHozHrQD4qxvKdfqq/predictable-updating-about-ai-risk?commentId=jFE3exdnFotmzcLtw"><span class="LWTooltip-root">7d</span><svg class="MuiSvgIcon-root CommentsItemDate-icon ForumIcon-root ForumIcon-linkRotation" focusable="false" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"><path fill="none" d="M0 0h24v24H0z"></path><path d="M3.9 12c0-1.71 1.39-3.1 3.1-3.1h4V7H7c-2.76 0-5 2.24-5 5s2.24 5 5 5h4v-1.9H7c-1.71 0-3.1-1.39-3.1-3.1zM8 13h8v-2H8v2zm9-6h-4v1.9h4c1.71 0 3.1 1.39 3.1 3.1s-1.39 3.1-3.1 3.1h-4V17h4c2.76 0 5-2.24 5-5s-2.24-5-5-5z"></path></svg></a></span><span class="TwoAxisVoteOnComment-root"><span class="LWTooltip-root"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-vote"><span class="OverallVoteAxis-overallSection OverallVoteAxis-overallSectionBox"><button tabindex="0" class="MuiButtonBase-root MuiIconButton-root VoteArrowIcon-root VoteArrowIcon-left VoteArrowIcon-disabled" type="button"><span class="MuiIconButton-label"><s
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|
opacity: 1;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@keyframes intercom-lightweight-app-messenger {
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
0% {
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 0;
|
|||
|
|
transform: scale(0);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
40% {
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 1;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
100% {
|
|||
|
|
transform: scale(1);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app {
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 2147483001;
|
|||
|
|
width: 0;
|
|||
|
|
height: 0;
|
|||
|
|
font-family: intercom-font, "Helvetica Neue", "Apple Color Emoji", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-gradient {
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 2147483002;
|
|||
|
|
width: 500px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 500px;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 0;
|
|||
|
|
right: 0;
|
|||
|
|
pointer-events: none;
|
|||
|
|
background: radial-gradient(
|
|||
|
|
ellipse at bottom right,
|
|||
|
|
rgba(29, 39, 54, 0.16) 0%,
|
|||
|
|
rgba(29, 39, 54, 0) 72%);
|
|||
|
|
animation: intercom-lightweight-app-gradient 200ms ease-out;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher {
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 2147483003;
|
|||
|
|
padding: 0 !important;
|
|||
|
|
margin: 0 !important;
|
|||
|
|
border: none;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 20px;
|
|||
|
|
right: 20px;
|
|||
|
|
max-width: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
width: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
max-height: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 50%;
|
|||
|
|
background: #f5f5f5;
|
|||
|
|
cursor: pointer;
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0 1px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.06), 0 2px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.16);
|
|||
|
|
transition: transform 167ms cubic-bezier(0.33, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00);
|
|||
|
|
box-sizing: content-box;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher:hover {
|
|||
|
|
transition: transform 250ms cubic-bezier(0.33, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00);
|
|||
|
|
transform: scale(1.1)
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher:active {
|
|||
|
|
transform: scale(0.85);
|
|||
|
|
transition: transform 134ms cubic-bezier(0.45, 0, 0.2, 1);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher:focus {
|
|||
|
|
outline: none;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon {
|
|||
|
|
display: flex;
|
|||
|
|
align-items: center;
|
|||
|
|
justify-content: center;
|
|||
|
|
position: absolute;
|
|||
|
|
top: 0;
|
|||
|
|
left: 0;
|
|||
|
|
width: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 48px;
|
|||
|
|
transition: transform 100ms linear, opacity 80ms linear;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-open {
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 1;
|
|||
|
|
transform: rotate(0deg) scale(1);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-open svg {
|
|||
|
|
width: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
height: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-open svg path {
|
|||
|
|
fill: rgb(0, 0, 0);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-self-serve {
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 1;
|
|||
|
|
transform: rotate(0deg) scale(1);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-self-serve svg {
|
|||
|
|
height: 44px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-self-serve svg path {
|
|||
|
|
fill: rgb(0, 0, 0);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-custom-icon-open {
|
|||
|
|
max-height: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
max-width: 24px;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 1;
|
|||
|
|
transform: rotate(0deg) scale(1);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-minimize {
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
opacity: 0;
|
|||
|
|
transform: rotate(-60deg) scale(0);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-minimize svg path {
|
|||
|
|
fill: rgb(0, 0, 0);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-messenger {
|
|||
|
|
position: fixed;
|
|||
|
|
z-index: 2147483003;
|
|||
|
|
overflow: hidden;
|
|||
|
|
background-color: white;
|
|||
|
|
animation: intercom-lightweight-app-messenger 250ms cubic-bezier(0, 1.2, 1, 1);
|
|||
|
|
transform-origin: bottom right;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
width: 400px;
|
|||
|
|
height: calc(100% - 104px);
|
|||
|
|
max-height: 704px;
|
|||
|
|
min-height: 250px;
|
|||
|
|
right: 20px;
|
|||
|
|
bottom: 84px;
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0 5px 40px rgba(0,0,0,0.16);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
border-radius: 16px;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-messenger-header {
|
|||
|
|
height: 64px;
|
|||
|
|
border-bottom: none;
|
|||
|
|
background: #f5f5f5
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app-messenger-footer{
|
|||
|
|
position:absolute;
|
|||
|
|
bottom:0;
|
|||
|
|
width: 100%;
|
|||
|
|
height: 80px;
|
|||
|
|
background: #fff;
|
|||
|
|
font-size: 14px;
|
|||
|
|
line-height: 21px;
|
|||
|
|
border-top: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);
|
|||
|
|
box-shadow: 0px 0px 25px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@media print {
|
|||
|
|
.intercom-lightweight-app {
|
|||
|
|
display: none;
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
</style><div class="intercom-lightweight-app-launcher intercom-launcher" role="button" tabindex="0" aria-label="Open Intercom Messenger" aria-live="polite"><div class="intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-open"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 28 32"><path d="M28 32s-4.714-1.855-8.527-3.34H3.437C1.54 28.66 0 27.026 0 25.013V3.644C0 1.633 1.54 0 3.437 0h21.125c1.898 0 3.437 1.632 3.437 3.645v18.404H28V32zm-4.139-11.982a.88.88 0 00-1.292-.105c-.03.026-3.015 2.681-8.57 2.681-5.486 0-8.517-2.636-8.571-2.684a.88.88 0 00-1.29.107 1.01 1.01 0 00-.219.708.992.992 0 00.318.664c.142.128 3.537 3.15 9.762 3.15 6.226 0 9.621-3.022 9.763-3.15a.992.992 0 00.317-.664 1.01 1.01 0 00-.218-.707z"></path></svg></div><div class="intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon intercom-lightweight-app-launcher-icon-minimize"><svg width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
|
|||
|
|
<path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M18.601 8.39897C18.269 8.06702 17.7309 8.06702 17.3989 8.39897L12 13.7979L6.60099 8.39897C6.26904 8.06702 5.73086 8.06702 5.39891 8.39897C5.06696 8.73091 5.06696 9.2691 5.39891 9.60105L11.3989 15.601C11.7309 15.933 12.269 15.933 12.601 15.601L18.601 9.60105C18.9329 9.2691 18.9329 8.73091 18.601 8.39897Z" fill="white"></path>
|
|||
|
|
</svg>
|
|||
|
|
</div></div></div></body></html>
|